American jobs

[Bucho]

I strictly refuse to beliefe he was dumb or incompetent or suffering from a disorder or something. I find such believe not only naive but also an insult to his supporters which is making things worse. I`ve met people with such conditions. Making billions, impregnating models and winning presidential election campaigns is not how they roll.

In fact, I have analysed his behavior and use the same strategy for my own guerilla marketing concept. It centers around a film clip sporting a (freaking "continental giant") rabbit that I borrowed from a snake holder ("and as you can see, that ain`t no blindworm") in order to familiarize customers with my working material. The plan is to troll PETA into a nation-wide outrage focussing on the country`s only lure shop that "kills rabbits to kill fish", as said reporter put it in said interview - which I analysed in order to become aware of the cliche he was transporting. I created a mildly retarded personae that lectures (a weakness of mine) the audience that it was illegal to live-feed mammals as that might harm the valuable snake and since animals "had no such thing as a soul that they could use to think for themselfes..."

I showed the film, which of course includes professional underwater footage of hair jigs, to a test audience of 6 kayak anglers on a summit the other day.  One fell into a fundamental-archaic monologe about stone age fishing lures, two were wrenching their brains how they could help me against PETA and the other 3 were asking "that jig in the film, you got that with you?" They had known my merchandise for years and spend 2 evenings on that summit without buying anything until they saw the jig underwater. 

It feels badly counter-intuitive to reject good friend`s advice on the film (less rabbit talk, more fishing stuff etc.) but I know it triggers the emotions I want - outrage, solidarity and interest - so I´ll give it a shot as soon as I finished work on my new, professionalized web presence. The rabbit won`t be available for future films, unfortunately...

 

[Hawnjigs]

I was wondering if our Presidents accomplishments are because he said so? Like this one lately?

TRUMP at a Pennsylvania rally Thursday night: "U.S. Steel is opening up seven plants." On Tuesday, he told supporters in Florida: "U.S. Steel just announced that they're building six new steel mills."

 

[Bucho]

TRUMP at a Pennsylvania rally Thursday night: "U.S. Steel is opening up seven plants." On Tuesday, he told supporters in Florida: "U.S. Steel just announced that they're building six new steel mills."

So he got 1 figure wrong. By one. Who cares?? I didn`t even know about new plants. You just told me that. Don`t you get it? The lie is the bait. You swallowed it, and now you`re spreading the message "it works, there are new steel plants being build!". The more you get worked up about it, the more "reach" he scores, and we all get dumber in the process. Deliberate misinformation is a smart thing to do. It works for him. I looked up the 4% rise in gdp hookup mentioned, and no, I will not take that any further....

Discussion over here goes more into the direction of "how far is your competitiveness affected by higher domestic steel prices if you are e.g. a nail or needle manufacturer?" Some say american steel was inferior for some applications so certain qualities would have to imported regardless the tax. Maybe those jobs outweight the six or seven new steel plants? :huh: But hey, its all fake news in the end, no more facts, only opinoins...

 

[Hawnjigs]

The #s discrepancy for anyone who bothered to fact check with US Steel spokesperson commentary was considerably more than 1.

I agree that lies can be used as attention bait.  The reason for posting this topic was a reminder that lies are NOT facts, and liars do NOT speak the truth.

 

[hookup]

The reason for posting this topic was a reminder that lies are NOT facts, and liars do NOT speak the truth.

That's what I say about the Clintons

 

[Hawnjigs]

The GDP is being flouted as a measure of economic prosperity.  Not feeling very prosperous, I looked up what metrics are included in the GDP.  I found these noteworthy, among others that are counted in GDP.

Interesting that the same commodity being sold multiple times, for example:  wheat:
farm to a broker
broker to a flour miller
miller to bakery / factory
factory to consumer

Of more concern for upward skewing of the GDP giving the ILLUSION of growth:

1. Defense spending a big 18.6% increase in 2018 $700 billion from 2017 $590 billion
 
2. Stock buybacks resulting from the massive cut in corporate tax rate from 35% to 22%.  From "The Atlantic" publication:
"The once illegal practice of companies purchasing their own shares is pulling money away from employee compensation, research and development, and other corporate priorities—with potentially sweeping effects on business dynamism, income and wealth inequality, working-class economic stagnation, and the country’s growth rate."
How much money is involved?  From the same "Atlantic" article dated 7/31/18:
" hundreds of billions of dollars on buybacks in the past six months alone."

Edit:  for those that think "left" journalism, whatever that is, is fake news:  Buyback update from "Fortune":
[size=medium]" J.P. Morgan estimates that repurchases in 2018 will jump 51% from last year’s mark, to $800 billion, which would be a single-[/size]
[size=small]year record.  Money spent on buybacks is money that isn’t invested in projects that fuel longer-term success. "[/size]

 

[hookup]

A few thoughts:

The Atlantic's left of left

GDP numbers drive the US economy and the county

Unemployment numbers are at an all time low

Stock market's going through the roof

Our enemies are scared shitless of Trump

 

[Hawnjigs]

Researching further, those increases in health insurance premiums many are griping about?  Those are also counted in the GDP.  How is that a measure of prosperity ?  Oh right, the insurance companies are posting record profits.

"Despite an initial rough patch in the ACA marketplaces, the ACA Medicaid coverage expansion and subsidies to insurers have resulted in a large increase in health insurer profits. Health insurers’ stock prices more than doubled the impressive gain in the S&P 500 since the law’s main provisions took effect on January 1, 2014. Much of insurers’ increased profitability has resulted from increased Medicaid enrollment and increased payments per enrollee in Medicaid expansion states where the federal government pays nearly all the costs. While insurers initially incurred losses in the ACA marketplaces as they adjusted to new regulations and a relatively unhealthy risk pool, insurers are now profiting on the individual market as well, with higher premiums that are largely covered by federal premium subsidies."

Liberal fake news?  Nope, published on Whitehouse.gov March 2018.

Could there be a connection why Obamacare was NOT replaced by "better cheaper health care" ?

 

[Bucho]

Our enemies are scared shitless of Trump

While not an "enemy" rather than a "foe" in the eyes of your president, I have to say that this is not the case. Personly, I am highly amused and inspired by his personal success. Many are concerned. But nobody is really scared, at least not in a way that would be desireable from an American point of view.

 

[Hawnjigs]

Huh, I thought Germany & the EU, NATO (including Turkey) were our allies ?

 

[Hawnjigs]

Researching GDP has been a mind opener - it appears that when this tariff-tradewar bizness necessitates a rise in consumer prices tacked onto the GDP that will be touted as economic growth. Why do I feel like a victim ?

 

[Bucho]

Let´s not include Turkey, that´s another story. At the end of the day, Trump is following the american Dream, Putin is a patriot in his own sleazy KGB way and Merkel does whatever it takes to be re-elected. Erdogan however is a total prick who is seriously trying to re-establish the otoman empire at all costs, encluding his countries economical downfall.

 

[Hawnjigs]

Thanks Bucho, nice to have a view from the outside considering our polarized media sources pursuing their narrow conflicting agendas.

Sounds like Turkey has a bit in common with Venezuela & Mr. Maduro,  a country in total economic collapse despite the worlds largest oil reserve.

Seriously, I'm hoping we're not next.  Too many of us have forgotten the result of the Bush tax cuts - corporate welfare economy.

Here's reminder of the Bush presidency stock market performance:
View attachment 7

By comparison, despite rants that he ruined our economy,  stock market during Obama presidency:
View attachment 8

 

[hookup]

Good points Bucho

Hawn - Your Bush graph should be a learning experience for anyone in the market now. Longest running Bull market in history. There will come a day when she seen the same drops. Maybe time to start moving things around a bit?

 

[Hawnjigs]

Don't take offense, but even if I could afford stock market investing I consider it representative of the worst of human nature, the desire for gain at the expense of others without contributing anything of value. Personally, I prefer useful "investments", like supplies for my bizness.

From the outside looking in tho, the bull market is scarey, and indeed I hope investors will GRADUALLY diversify to somewhat mitigate the next catastrophic crash. Cuz history demonstrated that when the market goes, we all get dragged down with it.

 

[Bucho]

Researching GDP has been a mind opener -  it appears that when this tariff-tradewar bizness necessitates a rise in consumer prices tacked onto the GDP that will be touted as economic growth.   Why do I feel like a victim ?

Dunno how you guys handle your data but over here inflation is carefully taken out of the calculation. So don´t go overboard with your GDP research and don`t victimize yourself. There are weakpoints s.a. desaster counting as growth but nevertheless overall growth seems to be pretty good in the U.S. at the moment. Personly, I´d be more concerned about corporate tax cuts and the 1 Trillion deficite. If these cuts don`t pay for themselves now, they will hardly do so under a recession.

High after tax profits will only turn into investments if good outlooks are stable. And that is not exactly what Trump stands for.

 

[Hawnjigs]

Wow, great news, our President said jobs growth exceeded expectations and wages are moving up at a record rate.

Interesting tho is that the fed minimum wage remains at $7.25, same since July 2009.

Then again, there's efforts at state and local levels to organize and fight for higher wages, prominent among them "Fight for 15".

There appears to be a pattern particularly in red states of government suppressing workers efforts to organize and fight for better pay.  Thanks to Fight for 15 wage workers have a nationwide organization to support and coordinate their efforts.  For example:
 
Missouri: "On the ballot was Prop A, a so-called “right to work” bill that would’ve limited workers rights to stand together, form a union, and earn better wages. But working people in Missouri refused to back down and voted to defeat Prop A by a 2-1 landslide."

Alabama: "Victory for 40,000 minimum wage workers in Birmingham! This week, a federal appeals court ruled in favor of a group of Black fast-food workers in the fight over Birmingham’s minimum wage increase from $7.25 to $10.10"

Great news indeed this progressive movement creating incentive to become and remain gainfully employed.  I don't understand why government should resist ?  If interested, details on the website https://fightfor15.org .

 

[Hawnjigs]

Don't know that I need to worry about the $trillion$ deficit since our president promised a balanced budget.

And the reason for the corporate tax cut was to spur economic growth. The president cites the $trillions$ gain in the stock market as evidence.

 

[hookup]

Dunno how you guys handle your data but over here inflation is carefully taken out of the calculation. 

Pretty easy to do.  Taking out inflation, then the numbers become nominal - or this year's dollars.  Adding inflation the numbers become "real".

Inflation's included when an analyst is looking at forecasts - brings more meaning to the numbers in the forecast.  Taking inflation out of the numbers "inflates" the forecast - so that its not "real" anymore.  

Example $1 today in 2018$'s is 93c next year in 2018$'s.  (assuming inflation is 7 percent).  Go out 10 years and things really look squirrelly if the analyst takes out inflation.  Paints a false picture of what's really going on

Key thing to remember is a dollar in 2019$'s has less buying power than it had in 2018 (note did not say 2018 dollars)

On another subject that's a button for me that we talked about earlier - I'll use Maxime Water's because it to easy.  She's calling her "fans" to attach Trump supporters.  Couple days ago in San Francisco one tried to stab a republican candidate.  Now the stabbers off to jail.  

This was not an isolated incident - but since the liberal bias of the press, we're not seeing everything.  Gotta go to a Drudge (and even they took stories down because it caused to much controversy) or some of the really conservative rags (or in today's terms, conservative websites). 

I still find it amazing how people will listen to nut jobs advocating violence and decide a nice long jail sentence is worth it.  Or maybe they're just nut jobs themselves?

 

[hookup]

Hey Bucho - hope the fish'n's good over there. We're having flooding of biblical proportions on the ride side of the US and now with Florence, it's getting worse. And I read Texas is going to get slammed here soon by another hurricane.

I usually don't post much in these kinds threads unless the rivers are trashed/ I'd rather be thinking about fishing LoL